Fairfield CH · F · Hard · 13 Oct 2024
Learner Tien v Bernard Tomic
50–21 in points · Learner Tien won
Why it went the way it did
Learner Tien won 15.6 more points than Bernard Tomic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Bernard Tomic's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.7, serve 1st execution −2.5, return execution −2.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Learner Tien | Bernard Tomic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −2.5 | −2.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.3 | −2.3 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.8 | −0.6 | −0.2 | −0.5 | −2.3 | −3.0 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +0.5 | +1.1 | +1.7 | −0.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.2 |
| Slice | −0.4 | −2.7 | +0.5 | −2.6 | −0.2 | −2.7 | −0.4 | −3.3 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.8 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.9 | −2.0 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | −2.2 | +3.6 | +1.3 | −0.5 | −3.2 | −10.5 | −14.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Learner Tien | Bernard Tomic | Net, Learner | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.2 | −7.0 | +9.2 | |
| 2 | −0.9 | −7.2 | +6.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Learner Tien serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 100% | – | 57% 75% |
| 2 | 42% 100% | 5% 100% | 53% 70% |
Within sets −1.57 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Bernard Tomic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 79% 20% | 5% 100% | 16% 67% |
| 2 | 61% 55% | 11% 50% | 28% 40% |
Within sets −0.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Learner Tien
3.0 points left on the table across 121 shots 2.52 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.16 pts
Bernard Tomic
3.2 points left on the table across 124 shots 2.55 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts