Villa Maria CH · F · Clay · 13 Oct 2024
Jesper De Jong v Camilo Ugo Carabelli
106–111 in points · Camilo Ugo Carabelli won
Why it went the way it did
Camilo Ugo Carabelli won 1.2 more points than Jesper De Jong relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jesper De Jong's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.2, net execution −3.6, serve 1st execution −2.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jesper De Jong | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | +0.8 | −2.7 | −1.7 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −2.3 | −2.8 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.6 |
| Return | −0.1 | +1.1 | −0.3 | +0.7 | −0.3 | −0.6 | −3.2 | −4.1 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +5.5 | −2.3 | +3.2 | ±0.0 | +10.7 | −1.3 | +9.5 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +5.5 | +5.7 | +0.5 | −0.3 | +1.2 | +1.3 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −5.2 | +0.9 | −4.4 | +0.2 | −6.0 | +2.0 | −3.8 |
| Net | +0.7 | +1.3 | −3.6 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +0.7 | +1.8 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.8 | −1.7 | −2.4 | −0.2 | −0.3 | +0.4 | −0.1 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.9 | +2.7 | −4.5 | −0.9 | −0.1 | +4.2 | −3.7 | +0.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Jesper De Jong | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Net, Jesper | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.6 | +2.0 | −4.6 | |
| 2 | +2.6 | −2.1 | +4.7 | |
| 3 | −0.9 | +0.4 | −1.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jesper De Jong serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 40% | 2% 0% | 54% 64% |
| 2 | 39% 78% | 17% 50% | 43% 50% |
| 3 | 39% 45% | 11% 67% | 50% 64% |
Set to set +0.14 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.19 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Camilo Ugo Carabelli serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% 58% | 13% 17% | 60% 74% |
| 2 | 27% 60% | 19% 57% | 54% 40% |
| 3 | 47% 63% | 18% 83% | 35% 50% |
Set to set −0.77 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.22 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jesper De Jong
16.2 points left on the table across 578 shots 2.81 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×9; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.65 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×10; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.63 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×19; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.74 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
15.6 points left on the table across 568 shots 2.74 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×8; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×23; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.55 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.47 pts