Tokyo · R32 · Hard · 21 Oct 2024
Sofia Kenin v Xin Yu Wang
71–49 in points · Sofia Kenin won
Why it went the way it did
Sofia Kenin won 12.8 more points than Xin Yu Wang relative to what the serve alone predicted. Xin Yu Wang's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.0, return execution −2.2, slice shot selection −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Sofia Kenin | Xin Yu Wang | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +1.0 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.7 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 |
| Return | +0.5 | −0.4 | +0.6 | +0.7 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −2.2 | −1.9 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +0.7 | +2.0 | +3.0 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | −0.1 | +0.9 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +0.4 | +4.0 | +4.7 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −4.0 | −3.7 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −1.5 | +0.4 | −1.5 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | −1.6 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.3 | +0.2 | +1.1 | +1.2 | +2.4 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.1 | +1.4 | +1.6 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.7 | −0.3 |
| All shots | +1.2 | −0.6 | +8.0 | +8.6 | +0.4 | +1.5 | −6.1 | −4.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Sofia Kenin | Xin Yu Wang | Net, Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.2 | −4.5 | +7.7 | |
| 2 | +5.3 | +0.3 | +5.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Sofia Kenin serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 70% | 5% 100% | 42% 100% |
| 2 | 48% 79% | 10% 33% | 41% 75% |
Within sets +0.34 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Xin Yu Wang serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 60% | 27% 17% | 27% 50% |
| 2 | 72% 58% | 8% 50% | 20% 50% |
Within sets +0.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Sofia Kenin
3.6 points left on the table across 157 shots 2.31 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×7; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH drop shot down the line ×1; FH drop shot crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
Xin Yu Wang
4.3 points left on the table across 156 shots 2.76 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×3; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts