Vienna · R16 · Hard · 23 Oct 2024
Alexander Zverev v Marcos Giron
65–40 in points · Alexander Zverev won
Why it went the way it did
Alexander Zverev won 14.7 more points than Marcos Giron relative to what the serve alone predicted. Marcos Giron's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.9, return shot selection −0.6, touch execution −0.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alexander Zverev | Marcos Giron | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +7.1 | +7.3 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +2.2 | +2.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.4 | +3.1 | +3.6 | +0.1 | −0.6 | +2.1 | +1.5 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +1.9 | +5.0 | +7.4 | +0.5 | +1.1 | +1.7 | +3.3 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +0.3 | +3.5 | +4.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.5 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −1.7 | −1.0 | −2.3 | +0.1 | −2.9 | +0.1 | −2.7 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.8 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.6 |
| All shots | +1.5 | +1.2 | +18.6 | +21.3 | +1.1 | −2.4 | +7.8 | +6.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Alexander Zverev | Marcos Giron | Net, Alexander | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +9.8 | +2.2 | +7.6 | |
| 2 | +11.5 | +4.4 | +7.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alexander Zverev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 100% | – | 50% 88% |
| 2 | 44% 100% | – | 56% 80% |
Within sets ±0.00 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Marcos Giron serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 55% | – | 45% 44% |
| 2 | 61% 60% | – | 39% 69% |
Within sets +0.60 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alexander Zverev
2.9 points left on the table across 181 shots 1.61 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
Marcos Giron
3.2 points left on the table across 161 shots 1.96 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×2; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts