Basel · QF · Hard · 25 Oct 2024

Denis Shapovalov v Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

101–107 in points · Denis Shapovalov won

Why it went the way it did

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard won 1.5 more points than Denis Shapovalov relative to what the serve alone predicted. Denis Shapovalov's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.1, return shot selection −1.3, forehand execution −1.0.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

Shot	Denis Shapovalov				Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Shot	Dir	Sel	Exec	Total	Dir	Sel	Exec	Total
Serve 1st	+0.4	±0.0	+1.7	+2.1	+0.5	+0.5	+10.1	+11.1
Serve 2nd	+0.1	−0.1	+4.9	+4.9	+0.1	+0.6	+3.8	+4.5
Return	−0.4	−1.3	+1.9	+0.2	−0.4	−2.8	+3.0	−0.2
Forehand	+0.5	+1.3	−1.0	+0.8	−0.1	+0.6	+0.9	+1.4
Backhand	−0.2	±0.0	+0.7	+0.5	+0.1	±0.0	+0.3	+0.4
Slice	−0.2	−2.1	−0.9	−3.2	+0.2	−3.6	−2.6	−6.1
Net	±0.0	+0.6	+0.6	+1.3	−0.9	−0.4	−2.1	−3.4
Touch	±0.0	−0.1	−0.6	−0.7	±0.0	±0.0	±0.0	±0.0
Other	±0.0	±0.0	±0.0	±0.0	−0.1	−0.2	−0.1	−0.3
All shots	+0.1	−1.5	+7.3	+5.9	−0.6	−5.3	+13.3	+7.4

Set by set

Set	Denis Shapovalov	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	Net, Denis
1	+4.9	+3.0	+1.9
2	±0.0	+1.7	−1.7
3	+1.0	+2.6	−1.6

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Denis Shapovalov serving

Set	Wide	Body	T
1	33% 77%	3% 100%	65% 73%
2	33% 57%	5% 100%	62% 77%
3	26% 70%	3% 0%	71% 78%

Set to set −0.86 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets +0.43 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard serving

Set	Wide	Body	T
1	67% 68%	4% 100%	28% 69%
2	65% 76%	–	35% 78%
3	46% 82%	–	54% 75%

Set to set −0.13 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −0.04 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Denis Shapovalov

5.8 points left on the table across 164 shots 3.52 per 100 shots

Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH slice down the line ×3; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.45 pts
Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

6.7 points left on the table across 177 shots 3.79 per 100 shots

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.78 pts
Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts