Paris Masters · R64 · Hard · 28 Oct 2024
Tallon Griekspoor v Luciano Darderi
57–43 in points · Tallon Griekspoor won
Why it went the way it did
Tallon Griekspoor won 7.3 more points than Luciano Darderi relative to what the serve alone predicted. Luciano Darderi's biggest leaks: backhand execution −2.4, slice shot selection −1.0, slice execution −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Tallon Griekspoor | Luciano Darderi | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | +0.2 | +6.8 | +7.3 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +3.2 | +3.2 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.2 | +1.5 | +1.1 | −0.1 | −0.4 | +1.2 | +0.7 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.3 | −1.1 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | −0.8 | −0.1 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.9 | +1.4 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −2.4 | −2.6 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.5 | +0.3 | −1.3 | −0.2 | −1.0 | −0.9 | −2.1 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +2.6 | +2.6 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| All shots | +0.4 | −1.1 | +9.0 | +8.3 | −0.3 | −0.7 | +2.1 | +1.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Tallon Griekspoor | Luciano Darderi | Net, Tallon | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.1 | −1.0 | +4.1 | |
| 2 | +5.3 | +2.0 | +3.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Tallon Griekspoor serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 67% | – | 54% 86% |
| 2 | 30% 86% | – | 70% 88% |
Within sets +1.22 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Luciano Darderi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 75% | – | 48% 45% |
| 2 | 46% 77% | – | 54% 67% |
Within sets −0.70 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Tallon Griekspoor
2.2 points left on the table across 77 shots 2.81 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Serve +1: slice to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash down the line rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Luciano Darderi
2.2 points left on the table across 69 shots 3.20 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×2; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.10 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.10 pts