Champaign CH · SF · Hard · 16 Nov 2024
Nishesh Basavareddy v Eliot Spizzirri
52–23 in points · Nishesh Basavareddy won
Why it went the way it did
Nishesh Basavareddy won 14.3 more points than Eliot Spizzirri relative to what the serve alone predicted. Eliot Spizzirri's biggest leaks: backhand execution −1.6, slice shot selection −1.4, serve 1st execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Nishesh Basavareddy | Eliot Spizzirri | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −1.3 | −1.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.2 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −1.1 | −0.8 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +5.1 | +6.4 | +0.2 | +1.7 | −0.6 | +1.3 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +0.6 | +1.5 | +2.4 | −0.2 | +0.8 | −1.6 | −0.9 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.9 | +2.2 | +1.3 | −0.3 | −1.4 | −0.5 | −2.1 |
| Net | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.7 | −0.1 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.3 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.4 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| All shots | +0.8 | +1.3 | +8.2 | +10.4 | −0.6 | +2.0 | −5.4 | −4.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Nishesh Basavareddy | Eliot Spizzirri | Net, Nishesh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +6.3 | −1.1 | +7.3 | |
| 2 | +4.1 | −2.9 | +7.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Nishesh Basavareddy serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 89% | 5% 100% | 47% 78% |
| 2 | 53% 70% | 5% 100% | 42% 75% |
Within sets +0.52 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Eliot Spizzirri serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 43% | 22% 50% | 39% 43% |
| 2 | 32% 67% | 16% 0% | 53% 30% |
Within sets −2.73 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Nishesh Basavareddy
3.3 points left on the table across 168 shots 1.94 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
Eliot Spizzirri
4.4 points left on the table across 167 shots 2.62 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.19 pts