Champaign CH · F · Hard · 17 Nov 2024
Nishesh Basavareddy v Ethan Quinn
50–68 in points · Ethan Quinn won
Why it went the way it did
Ethan Quinn won 9.3 more points than Nishesh Basavareddy relative to what the serve alone predicted. Nishesh Basavareddy's biggest leaks: serve 2nd execution −4.4, backhand execution −2.3, serve 1st execution −2.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Nishesh Basavareddy | Ethan Quinn | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | −2.2 | −2.2 | −0.4 | −0.1 | +0.6 | ±0.0 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −4.4 | −4.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.1 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.3 | +1.1 | +0.7 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.4 | −0.2 | +0.1 | +1.6 | −3.4 | −1.7 |
| Backhand | +0.5 | +0.4 | −2.3 | −1.4 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +0.8 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.1 | −2.1 | +0.1 | −2.3 | +0.3 | −1.9 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.9 | +1.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| All shots | +0.7 | −0.6 | −9.8 | −9.7 | −0.2 | −0.6 | +0.4 | −0.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Nishesh Basavareddy | Ethan Quinn | Net, Nishesh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.5 | −1.0 | −4.5 | |
| 2 | −4.2 | +0.6 | −4.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Nishesh Basavareddy serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 29% | 3% 100% | 53% 75% |
| 2 | 42% 75% | 5% 100% | 53% 30% |
Set to set +0.89 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.32 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Ethan Quinn serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 69% | 20% 50% | 37% 73% |
| 2 | 40% 80% | 28% 43% | 32% 75% |
Set to set +0.13 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.14 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Nishesh Basavareddy
3.6 points left on the table across 175 shots 2.03 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side hit BH drop shot down the line ×1; BH drop shot crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
Ethan Quinn
3.7 points left on the table across 174 shots 2.11 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×2; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts