Puerto Vallarta CH · R32 · Hard · 19 Nov 2024
Nishesh Basavareddy v Goncalo Oliveira
58–37 in points · Nishesh Basavareddy won
Why it went the way it did
Nishesh Basavareddy won 10.4 more points than Goncalo Oliveira relative to what the serve alone predicted. Goncalo Oliveira's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.1, return execution −1.5, forehand execution −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Nishesh Basavareddy | Goncalo Oliveira | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.2 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.3 | −1.1 | −1.5 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −1.5 | −2.0 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +0.5 | +2.7 | +3.7 | +0.1 | +1.5 | −1.4 | +0.3 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.7 | +1.1 | −0.2 | +0.7 | −4.1 | −3.7 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.7 | +0.1 | −1.3 | −0.6 | −1.9 |
| Net | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.5 | −0.9 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +3.7 | +4.1 | +0.5 | +0.7 | −7.6 | −6.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Nishesh Basavareddy | Goncalo Oliveira | Net, Nishesh | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.7 | −4.1 | +5.8 | |
| 2 | +2.4 | −2.2 | +4.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Nishesh Basavareddy serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 78% | 17% 50% | 43% 90% |
| 2 | 68% 82% | 4% 100% | 28% 71% |
Within sets +0.14 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Goncalo Oliveira serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 43% | 7% 100% | 43% 50% |
| 2 | 63% 65% | 6% 100% | 31% 50% |
Within sets −0.35 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Nishesh Basavareddy
2.5 points left on the table across 108 shots 2.31 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Goncalo Oliveira
3.6 points left on the table across 119 shots 3.00 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH slice crosscourt ×2; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.21 pts