Montemar CH · QF · Clay · 22 Nov 2024
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer v Inaki Montes De La Torre
43–66 in points · Inaki Montes De La Torre won
Why it went the way it did
Inaki Montes De La Torre won 11.1 more points than Nicolai Budkov Kjaer relative to what the serve alone predicted. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.9, backhand execution −3.0, backhand shot selection −2.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | Inaki Montes De La Torre | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.4 | −0.1 | −1.3 | −1.8 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −2.9 | −3.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.9 | −2.0 |
| Return | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +2.2 | +1.9 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +3.0 | +3.0 |
| Forehand | −0.9 | +2.7 | −4.9 | −3.1 | −0.8 | +2.2 | −0.1 | +1.3 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | −2.2 | −3.0 | −5.5 | −1.5 | −0.4 | +4.9 | +3.0 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.1 | +0.6 | −1.6 | −0.2 | −4.8 | +1.3 | −3.7 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −1.1 | −1.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.7 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.2 | −1.3 | +0.1 | −1.3 | +0.3 | −0.9 |
| Other | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −1.7 | −1.9 | −9.2 | −12.9 | −2.9 | −4.4 | +5.5 | −1.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | Inaki Montes De La Torre | Net, Nicolai | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −8.5 | −2.1 | −6.4 | |
| 2 | −4.4 | +0.3 | −4.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 75% | 18% 0% | 54% 33% |
| 2 | 20% 80% | 40% 40% | 40% 20% |
Within sets −3.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Inaki Montes De La Torre serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 62% | 17% 60% | 38% 64% |
| 2 | 19% 60% | 26% 29% | 56% 73% |
Set to set −3.58 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.04 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
10.6 points left on the table across 350 shots 3.02 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.99 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.57 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
Inaki Montes De La Torre
11.8 points left on the table across 345 shots 3.42 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.99 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×15; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.63 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.61 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.57 pts