NextGen Finals · RR · Hard · 18 Dec 2024
Alex Michelsen v Nishesh Basavareddy
77–78 in points · Alex Michelsen won
Why it went the way it did
Nishesh Basavareddy won 1.0 more points than Alex Michelsen relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alex Michelsen's biggest leaks: return execution −2.2, slice shot selection −2.0, forehand execution −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alex Michelsen | Nishesh Basavareddy | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −1.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −2.3 | −2.5 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.8 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −0.9 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.2 | −2.2 | −1.8 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +1.2 |
| Forehand | −0.5 | +3.3 | −0.9 | +1.9 | +0.2 | +1.8 | −0.4 | +1.7 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +3.6 | +4.8 | +0.5 | +2.4 | +1.2 | +4.2 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −2.0 | −0.2 | −2.2 | −0.4 | −1.4 | +0.7 | −1.1 |
| Net | +0.8 | +1.3 | −0.9 | +1.3 | +0.5 | +0.5 | −1.5 | −0.5 |
| Touch | −0.1 | +0.2 | −0.4 | −0.3 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.7 |
| All shots | +0.3 | +4.3 | −2.8 | +1.8 | +1.4 | +3.2 | −1.9 | +2.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Alex Michelsen | Nishesh Basavareddy | Net, Alex | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.7 | +1.6 | −3.3 | |
| 2 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.3 | |
| 3 | +2.9 | +2.5 | +0.4 | |
| 4 | +0.5 | −1.1 | +1.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alex Michelsen serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 57% | 6% 0% | 56% 60% |
| 2 | 33% 86% | 10% 100% | 57% 75% |
| 3 | 46% 58% | 19% 60% | 35% 67% |
| 4 | 57% 50% | 29% 75% | 14% 50% |
Set to set −0.90 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.37 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Nishesh Basavareddy serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% 80% | 13% 100% | 25% 50% |
| 2 | 30% 100% | 10% 100% | 60% 67% |
| 3 | 45% 80% | 14% 100% | 41% 22% |
| 4 | 56% 50% | 11% 0% | 33% 67% |
Set to set +0.80 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.39 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alex Michelsen
7.8 points left on the table across 291 shots 2.67 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Nishesh Basavareddy
5.7 points left on the table across 280 shots 2.05 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.22 pts