United Cup · RR · Hard · 28 Dec 2024
Alex De Minaur v Tomas Martin Etcheverry
58–40 in points · Alex De Minaur won
Why it went the way it did
Alex De Minaur won 8.4 more points than Tomas Martin Etcheverry relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tomas Martin Etcheverry's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.1, slice execution −0.9, net execution −0.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alex De Minaur | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | +2.1 | +2.2 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +1.4 | +1.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 |
| Return | −0.3 | +0.1 | +2.4 | +2.3 | −0.3 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +0.9 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +1.7 | +2.0 | +4.2 | +0.4 | +0.9 | +0.4 | +1.7 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +0.7 | +1.9 | +3.0 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +2.2 | +2.9 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −2.2 | +0.6 | −1.6 | +0.2 | −2.1 | −0.9 | −2.7 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.9 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| All shots | +1.0 | +0.5 | +11.2 | +12.6 | +0.6 | −0.7 | +4.3 | +4.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Alex De Minaur | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | Net, Alex | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.3 | +0.1 | +4.2 | |
| 2 | +8.4 | +4.1 | +4.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alex De Minaur serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 75% | – | 50% 67% |
| 2 | 56% 87% | – | 44% 67% |
Within sets +0.59 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tomas Martin Etcheverry serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 40% | – | 67% 50% |
| 2 | 66% 71% | 3% 100% | 31% 40% |
Within sets +1.95 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alex De Minaur
3.6 points left on the table across 202 shots 1.80 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.17 pts
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
3.6 points left on the table across 196 shots 1.82 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.20 pts