Brisbane · R32 · Hard · 31 Dec 2024
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard v Nick Kyrgios
111–107 in points · Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard won
Why it went the way it did
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard won 1.4 more points than Nick Kyrgios relative to what the serve alone predicted. Nick Kyrgios's biggest leaks: return execution −5.9, backhand execution −3.0, slice shot selection −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | Nick Kyrgios | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | +0.3 | +7.5 | +7.9 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +3.8 | +4.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.6 | +1.6 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.2 | +0.6 | −5.9 | −5.5 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +1.4 | −5.4 | −4.1 | −0.1 | +2.3 | +3.1 | +5.4 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −3.0 | −2.5 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.4 | −0.1 | −1.6 | −0.2 | −0.8 | +0.3 | −0.6 |
| Net | −0.6 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.1 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −0.1 | +0.2 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.6 | −1.3 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.6 | −1.1 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.5 |
| All shots | −0.6 | −0.5 | +3.3 | +2.3 | −0.2 | +2.0 | −0.8 | +0.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | Nick Kyrgios | Net, Giovanni | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.9 | ±0.0 | +4.9 | |
| 2 | −2.6 | −0.1 | −2.5 | |
| 3 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | −1.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 88% | 6% 100% | 42% 86% |
| 2 | 45% 84% | 12% 80% | 43% 61% |
| 3 | 50% 89% | – | 50% 72% |
Set to set −0.47 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.41 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Nick Kyrgios serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 63% | 3% 100% | 56% 77% |
| 2 | 37% 92% | 6% 100% | 57% 75% |
| 3 | 45% 87% | 3% 100% | 52% 82% |
Set to set −0.33 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.44 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
7.3 points left on the table across 219 shots 3.33 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Long rally, 9+: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.24 pts
Nick Kyrgios
6.5 points left on the table across 203 shots 3.20 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your middle, opponent at net, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Return +1: slice to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts