United Cup · RR · Hard · 1 Jan 2025
Olivia Gadecki v Katie Boulter
35–58 in points · Katie Boulter won
Why it went the way it did
Katie Boulter won 12.7 more points than Olivia Gadecki relative to what the serve alone predicted. Olivia Gadecki's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.2, serve 1st execution −1.9, return shot selection −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Olivia Gadecki | Katie Boulter | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.9 | −1.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.5 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Return | −0.1 | −1.7 | −1.2 | −3.1 | −0.3 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −1.0 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +0.4 | −3.2 | −2.9 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +1.1 | +1.7 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.4 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −1.6 | −1.8 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.6 | −0.8 | −2.5 | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.8 | +0.3 |
| All shots | −0.3 | −2.9 | −8.7 | −11.9 | −0.7 | −0.3 | +1.9 | +0.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Olivia Gadecki | Katie Boulter | Net, Olivia | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −7.3 | −0.7 | −6.6 | |
| 2 | −4.6 | +1.6 | −6.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Olivia Gadecki serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 67% | 17% 25% | 43% 40% |
| 2 | 36% 50% | 14% 50% | 50% 36% |
Within sets +0.94 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Katie Boulter serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 67% | 18% 75% | 27% 100% |
| 2 | 53% 70% | 21% 75% | 26% 60% |
Within sets −0.58 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Olivia Gadecki
3.4 points left on the table across 112 shots 3.02 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Katie Boulter
4.3 points left on the table across 124 shots 3.44 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH crosscourt ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts