United Cup · QF · Hard · 3 Jan 2025
Tomas Machac v Flavio Cobolli
53–25 in points · Tomas Machac won
Why it went the way it did
Tomas Machac won 12.8 more points than Flavio Cobolli relative to what the serve alone predicted. Flavio Cobolli's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.1, serve 1st execution −1.6, serve 2nd execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Tomas Machac | Flavio Cobolli | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | +3.9 | +3.9 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −1.5 |
| Return | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 | −0.2 | −0.4 | +0.9 | +0.3 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −0.7 | +0.3 | +0.7 | −3.1 | −2.2 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +2.5 | +2.6 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.0 | +0.6 | −1.4 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −0.3 | −1.4 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.4 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −1.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +0.3 | −1.7 | +6.9 | +5.5 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −6.5 | −7.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Tomas Machac | Flavio Cobolli | Net, Tomas | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.1 | −4.1 | +4.2 | |
| 2 | +5.4 | −3.2 | +8.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Tomas Machac serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 64% | 4% 100% | 54% 71% |
| 2 | 41% 100% | – | 59% 90% |
Within sets +1.64 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Flavio Cobolli serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% 38% | – | 43% 50% |
| 2 | 52% 55% | 5% 0% | 43% 44% |
Within sets +1.56 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Tomas Machac
2.5 points left on the table across 118 shots 2.08 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH slice crosscourt ×2; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
Flavio Cobolli
2.8 points left on the table across 113 shots 2.52 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit FH slice inside-in ×1; FH slice inside-out rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts