Brisbane · F · Hard · 5 Jan 2025
Jiri Lehecka v Reilly Opelka
17–7 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Jiri Lehecka won 4.1 more points than Reilly Opelka relative to what the serve alone predicted. Reilly Opelka's biggest leaks: backhand execution −1.3, forehand execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jiri Lehecka | Reilly Opelka | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −1.3 | −0.9 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.1 | +1.1 | +1.3 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.3 | −1.2 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.3 | −0.6 | +3.3 | +3.0 | +0.3 | +0.1 | −1.5 | −1.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Jiri Lehecka | Reilly Opelka | Net, Jiri | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.0 | −1.2 | +4.1 |
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jiri Lehecka
0.3 points left on the table across 29 shots 1.14 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.09 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.07 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.04 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH slice down the line ×1; FH slice through the middle rates higher · 0.03 pts
Reilly Opelka
0.4 points left on the table across 33 shots 1.14 per 100 shots
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.05 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.04 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.04 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.03 pts