Adelaide · R32 · Hard · 6 Jan 2025
Denis Shapovalov v Zhizhen Zhang
61–46 in points · Denis Shapovalov won
Why it went the way it did
Denis Shapovalov won 7.3 more points than Zhizhen Zhang relative to what the serve alone predicted. Zhizhen Zhang's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −1.6, forehand execution −1.2, backhand execution −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Denis Shapovalov | Zhizhen Zhang | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | +0.3 | +3.4 | +4.0 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +1.5 | +1.6 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.7 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −1.0 | +2.1 | +1.2 | −0.3 | −0.7 | +0.8 | −0.1 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +0.5 | +2.3 | +3.2 | +0.5 | +0.4 | −1.2 | −0.3 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −1.1 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −1.6 | −1.5 | −3.4 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −0.6 | −2.2 |
| Net | −0.4 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.3 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.1 | −1.8 | +8.2 | +6.5 | +0.5 | −1.9 | +0.7 | −0.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Denis Shapovalov | Zhizhen Zhang | Net, Denis | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +5.2 | +0.1 | +5.1 | |
| 2 | +1.3 | −0.9 | +2.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Denis Shapovalov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 85% | – | 50% 85% |
| 2 | 43% 75% | – | 57% 75% |
Within sets +0.50 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Zhizhen Zhang serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 63% | 4% 100% | 61% 64% |
| 2 | 63% 68% | – | 37% 64% |
Within sets +0.53 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Denis Shapovalov
4.1 points left on the table across 118 shots 3.45 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH slice crosscourt ×4; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.26 pts
Zhizhen Zhang
2.5 points left on the table across 109 shots 2.31 per 100 shots
- Return +1: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return +1: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts