Auckland · QF · Hard · 9 Jan 2025
Facundo Diaz Acosta v Gael Monfils
49–63 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Gael Monfils won 8.2 more points than Facundo Diaz Acosta relative to what the serve alone predicted. Facundo Diaz Acosta's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Facundo Diaz Acosta | Gael Monfils | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.3 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +2.6 | +3.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.4 | +1.3 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +5.7 | +6.4 |
| Forehand | +0.8 | +1.1 | −0.4 | +1.5 | +0.2 | +1.1 | −3.0 | −1.6 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.8 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +2.8 | +3.5 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −2.3 | +0.1 | −2.5 | +0.1 | −3.5 | +3.1 | −0.4 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.7 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.5 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.8 | +0.4 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.5 | −0.9 | +3.7 | +3.2 | +0.5 | −1.2 | +12.2 | +11.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Facundo Diaz Acosta | Gael Monfils | Net, Facundo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.5 | +4.7 | −3.2 | |
| 2 | +1.8 | +6.8 | −5.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Facundo Diaz Acosta serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 57% | 3% 100% | 53% 59% |
| 2 | 43% 42% | 4% 0% | 54% 53% |
Set to set ±0.00 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.04 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Gael Monfils serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 69% | – | 46% 73% |
| 2 | 54% 73% | – | 46% 54% |
Within sets −0.65 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Facundo Diaz Acosta
5.9 points left on the table across 225 shots 2.63 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH inside-in ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts
Gael Monfils
4.7 points left on the table across 235 shots 2.00 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts