Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 13 Jan 2025
Christopher Oconnell v Tommy Paul
152–175 in points · Tommy Paul won
Why it went the way it did
Tommy Paul won 15.8 more points than Christopher Oconnell relative to what the serve alone predicted. Christopher Oconnell's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −7.5, return shot selection −3.6, serve 1st execution −2.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Christopher Oconnell | Tommy Paul | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.7 | ±0.0 | −2.2 | −1.6 | +0.4 | +0.5 | −1.0 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.9 | +1.8 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.8 | +0.7 |
| Return | +1.2 | −3.6 | −0.3 | −2.8 | +0.3 | −0.8 | +4.7 | +4.2 |
| Forehand | +0.8 | +5.3 | −1.7 | +4.4 | ±0.0 | +6.9 | −0.6 | +6.3 |
| Backhand | +0.5 | +1.7 | +0.2 | +2.4 | +0.1 | +1.3 | +3.7 | +5.1 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −7.5 | −0.5 | −7.7 | ±0.0 | −4.4 | −1.7 | −6.0 |
| Net | +0.8 | −0.1 | −2.0 | −1.3 | +0.7 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +1.5 |
| Touch | +0.3 | −1.2 | −1.8 | −2.7 | −0.2 | −0.6 | −2.4 | −3.3 |
| All shots | +4.5 | −5.5 | −6.4 | −7.4 | +1.4 | +3.1 | +3.9 | +8.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Christopher Oconnell | Tommy Paul | Net, Christopher | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.7 | +0.3 | −5.9 | |
| 2 | +2.3 | +2.0 | +0.3 | |
| 3 | −0.8 | +5.5 | −6.3 | |
| 4 | −2.2 | −0.7 | −1.5 | |
| 5 | −0.9 | +1.4 | −2.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Christopher Oconnell serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 54% | 7% 100% | 44% 33% |
| 2 | 34% 57% | 2% 100% | 63% 69% |
| 3 | 44% 47% | 3% 0% | 53% 50% |
| 4 | 47% 70% | – | 53% 57% |
| 5 | 45% 73% | – | 55% 61% |
Set to set −0.34 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.58 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tommy Paul serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 79% | 8% 100% | 33% 50% |
| 2 | 52% 67% | 13% 33% | 35% 75% |
| 3 | 59% 68% | – | 41% 62% |
| 4 | 53% 68% | 8% 67% | 39% 64% |
| 5 | 65% 64% | 3% 100% | 32% 91% |
Set to set +0.29 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.07 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Christopher Oconnell
11.8 points left on the table across 624 shots 1.89 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
Tommy Paul
14.2 points left on the table across 652 shots 2.18 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts