Australian Open · R64 · Hard · 14 Jan 2025
Liudmila Samsonova v Olga Danilovic
35–58 in points · Olga Danilovic won
Why it went the way it did
Olga Danilovic won 12.8 more points than Liudmila Samsonova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Liudmila Samsonova's biggest leaks: forehand execution −7.2, backhand execution −2.9, return execution −2.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Liudmila Samsonova | Olga Danilovic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 |
| Return | −0.4 | +0.1 | −2.5 | −2.9 | −0.3 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +1.1 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.4 | −7.2 | −5.6 | −0.3 | +0.6 | −1.3 | −1.0 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +0.6 | −2.9 | −2.6 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.5 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −1.3 | −0.4 | −1.7 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| All shots | −0.5 | +1.7 | −12.9 | −11.7 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | +1.8 | +1.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Liudmila Samsonova | Olga Danilovic | Net, Liudmila | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −8.6 | −1.5 | −7.0 | |
| 2 | −3.1 | +2.6 | −5.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Liudmila Samsonova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% 58% | 17% 20% | 20% 17% |
| 2 | 56% 29% | 16% 50% | 28% 43% |
Set to set −0.47 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.14 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Olga Danilovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 71% | 19% 100% | 38% 67% |
| 2 | 41% 56% | 18% 50% | 41% 67% |
Within sets −1.31 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Liudmila Samsonova
4.1 points left on the table across 138 shots 3.00 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
Olga Danilovic
5.2 points left on the table across 140 shots 3.74 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×11; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.27 pts