Australian Open · R64 · Hard · 15 Jan 2025
Paula Badosa v Talia Gibson
51–21 in points · Paula Badosa won
Why it went the way it did
Paula Badosa won 14.4 more points than Talia Gibson relative to what the serve alone predicted. Talia Gibson's biggest leaks: return execution −3.8, forehand execution −3.8, backhand execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Paula Badosa | Talia Gibson | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.7 | +0.4 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −3.8 | −4.2 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +0.4 | +2.1 | +2.0 | −0.1 | +0.5 | −3.8 | −3.4 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +0.6 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −1.3 | −1.0 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.9 | +0.9 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.1 | −0.4 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.2 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.4 |
| All shots | −0.8 | −0.1 | +4.7 | +3.8 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −10.3 | −10.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Paula Badosa | Talia Gibson | Net, Paula | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.4 | −3.9 | +7.3 | |
| 2 | +0.4 | −6.7 | +7.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Paula Badosa serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 100% | 17% 33% | 33% 100% |
| 2 | 41% 56% | 9% 100% | 50% 73% |
Within sets +3.52 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Talia Gibson serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% 75% | 27% 25% | 47% 43% |
| 2 | 18% 33% | 12% 50% | 71% 25% |
Within sets −0.76 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Paula Badosa
3.9 points left on the table across 121 shots 3.21 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Talia Gibson
3.6 points left on the table across 128 shots 2.84 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.20 pts