Australian Open · R64 · Hard · 16 Jan 2025
Iga Swiatek v Rebecca Sramkova
49–26 in points · Iga Swiatek won
Why it went the way it did
Iga Swiatek won 11.6 more points than Rebecca Sramkova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Rebecca Sramkova's biggest leaks: backhand execution −3.8, serve 1st execution −1.4, serve 2nd execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Iga Swiatek | Rebecca Sramkova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.9 |
| Return | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −1.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +1.2 | +0.9 |
| Forehand | +0.6 | +1.1 | +5.0 | +6.6 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +0.9 | +2.0 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.2 | +1.5 | +1.8 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −3.8 | −3.3 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −0.8 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.3 | −0.8 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.8 |
| All shots | +0.4 | +0.9 | +6.0 | +7.3 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −4.4 | −4.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Iga Swiatek | Rebecca Sramkova | Net, Iga | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.5 | −3.2 | +7.7 | |
| 2 | +2.8 | −1.0 | +3.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Iga Swiatek serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 83% | 31% 60% | 31% 80% |
| 2 | 33% 86% | 14% 67% | 52% 73% |
Within sets +1.36 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Rebecca Sramkova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26% 40% | 21% 25% | 53% 30% |
| 2 | 37% 57% | 21% 50% | 42% 63% |
Within sets +0.25 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Iga Swiatek
3.3 points left on the table across 157 shots 2.13 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH lob through the middle ×1; FH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Rebecca Sramkova
3.4 points left on the table across 157 shots 2.16 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts