Australian Open · R32 · Hard · 17 Jan 2025
Diana Shnaider v Donna Vekic
116–123 in points · Donna Vekic won
Why it went the way it did
Donna Vekic won 4.4 more points than Diana Shnaider relative to what the serve alone predicted. Diana Shnaider's biggest leaks: return execution −3.0, slice shot selection −2.5, return shot selection −2.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Diana Shnaider | Donna Vekic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −1.3 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +1.6 | +1.8 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 |
| Return | −0.1 | −2.3 | −3.0 | −5.4 | −0.1 | +1.2 | +1.1 | +2.1 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +2.2 | +0.9 | +3.4 | ±0.0 | +2.5 | +2.9 | +5.4 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +3.8 | +5.0 | +0.1 | +0.6 | −0.2 | +0.5 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.5 | +0.6 | −2.0 | +0.1 | −1.8 | −0.4 | −2.1 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.5 | −1.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −2.9 | −3.4 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −1.0 | −0.4 | −1.6 | −0.3 | −1.9 | −0.3 | −2.5 |
| All shots | −0.6 | −1.8 | +0.7 | −1.7 | −0.2 | +0.5 | +2.5 | +2.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Diana Shnaider | Donna Vekic | Net, Diana | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.1 | +1.7 | −2.9 | |
| 2 | +1.3 | +0.5 | +0.7 | |
| 3 | −1.8 | +0.5 | −2.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Diana Shnaider serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25% 55% | 23% 70% | 52% 57% |
| 2 | 14% 57% | 33% 38% | 53% 62% |
| 3 | 21% 17% | 21% 83% | 59% 71% |
Set to set +0.47 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.36 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Donna Vekic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% 79% | 18% 57% | 33% 54% |
| 2 | 62% 54% | 11% 40% | 27% 50% |
| 3 | 50% 81% | 19% 67% | 31% 50% |
Set to set +1.32 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Diana Shnaider
12.4 points left on the table across 365 shots 3.41 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×6; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×6; BH inside-out rates higher · 0.68 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit BH crosscourt ×5; BH inside-out rates higher · 0.64 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.47 pts
Donna Vekic
9.8 points left on the table across 371 shots 2.64 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×7; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.48 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts