Australian Open · R32 · Hard · 18 Jan 2025
Danielle Collins v Madison Keys
56–64 in points · Madison Keys won
Why it went the way it did
Madison Keys won 3.3 more points than Danielle Collins relative to what the serve alone predicted. Danielle Collins's biggest leaks: return execution −3.8, backhand execution −3.4, serve 1st execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Danielle Collins | Madison Keys | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.3 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +2.5 | +2.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.2 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −3.8 | −4.5 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −4.0 | −3.8 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +1.6 | +0.2 | +1.1 | +0.3 | +1.6 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.2 | −3.4 | −3.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | −1.3 | −0.8 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.3 | +0.3 | −1.1 | −0.1 | −1.5 | +0.6 | −1.1 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | +1.1 | +1.3 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.5 |
| Touch | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.5 | −1.0 | −5.8 | −6.3 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | −3.8 | −3.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Danielle Collins | Madison Keys | Net, Danielle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.2 | −3.7 | −1.6 | |
| 2 | −1.1 | +0.6 | −1.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Danielle Collins serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% 63% | 28% 71% | 40% 70% |
| 2 | 63% 63% | 13% 75% | 23% 29% |
Within sets −1.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Madison Keys serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 79% | 19% 83% | 35% 55% |
| 2 | 47% 56% | 9% 67% | 44% 67% |
Set to set −0.40 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.78 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Danielle Collins
2.9 points left on the table across 147 shots 1.96 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH slice down the line ×2; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
Madison Keys
3.3 points left on the table across 147 shots 2.27 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH down the line ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts