Montpellier · R16 · Hard · 30 Jan 2025
Jesper De Jong v Flavio Cobolli
75–58 in points · Jesper De Jong won
Why it went the way it did
Jesper De Jong won 10.2 more points than Flavio Cobolli relative to what the serve alone predicted. Flavio Cobolli's biggest leaks: return execution −5.1, serve 1st execution −2.0, net execution −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jesper De Jong | Flavio Cobolli | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | +0.5 | −1.4 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.0 | −2.1 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | +0.3 | +1.3 | +1.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.1 |
| Return | +0.3 | −0.8 | +3.3 | +2.8 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −5.1 | −4.7 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +2.6 | −2.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.3 | +3.1 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −0.4 | −0.3 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 | −1.4 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.9 | −1.6 |
| Net | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −2.0 | −1.8 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.9 | −1.3 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.6 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.8 | +1.0 | +0.7 | +2.5 | −0.1 | +1.2 | −8.8 | −7.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Jesper De Jong | Flavio Cobolli | Net, Jesper | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.4 | −3.6 | +4.0 | |
| 2 | +2.2 | −4.0 | +6.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jesper De Jong serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 62% | 4% 100% | 48% 85% |
| 2 | 48% 67% | – | 52% 81% |
Set to set −1.39 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.22 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Flavio Cobolli serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 69% | 11% 33% | 30% 50% |
| 2 | 46% 50% | 8% 100% | 46% 56% |
Within sets −0.22 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jesper De Jong
5.2 points left on the table across 217 shots 2.38 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
Flavio Cobolli
5.6 points left on the table across 217 shots 2.59 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your forehand side hit FH lob down the line ×1; FH lob through the middle rates higher · 0.20 pts