Rotterdam · R32 · Hard · 3 Feb 2025
Daniil Medvedev v Stan Wawrinka
107–87 in points · Daniil Medvedev won
Why it went the way it did
Daniil Medvedev won 12.7 more points than Stan Wawrinka relative to what the serve alone predicted. Stan Wawrinka's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −8.0, return shot selection −2.3, net execution −2.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Daniil Medvedev | Stan Wawrinka | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | −0.2 | +4.1 | +4.4 | +0.6 | +0.7 | −0.7 | +0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Return | −0.5 | −0.3 | +4.7 | +3.9 | +0.1 | −2.3 | +3.6 | +1.3 |
| Forehand | +0.7 | +1.4 | +4.7 | +6.8 | +0.9 | +2.0 | +4.0 | +6.9 |
| Backhand | +1.0 | −0.5 | +4.7 | +5.2 | +0.3 | +0.6 | −1.4 | −0.5 |
| Slice | +0.5 | −5.3 | −0.1 | −4.9 | +1.0 | −8.0 | +2.9 | −4.1 |
| Net | −0.4 | +0.2 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.3 | +0.7 | −2.2 | −1.7 |
| Touch | +0.3 | −0.4 | +0.6 | +0.5 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.1 | −0.4 |
| All shots | +2.0 | −5.1 | +17.9 | +14.9 | +2.7 | −6.9 | +6.5 | +2.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Daniil Medvedev | Stan Wawrinka | Net, Daniil | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +5.9 | +5.0 | +0.9 | |
| 2 | +4.0 | −1.0 | +4.9 | |
| 3 | +5.0 | −1.8 | +6.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Daniil Medvedev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 65% | – | 41% 39% |
| 2 | 41% 91% | – | 59% 69% |
| 3 | 59% 70% | – | 41% 71% |
Set to set −1.66 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.99 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Stan Wawrinka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 60% | 2% 0% | 58% 52% |
| 2 | 60% 50% | – | 40% 75% |
| 3 | 42% 45% | – | 58% 40% |
Set to set +1.20 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.15 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Daniil Medvedev
7.9 points left on the table across 442 shots 1.79 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.61 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×5; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Stan Wawrinka
9.2 points left on the table across 445 shots 2.07 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.55 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts