Dallas · R32 · Hard · 5 Feb 2025
Taylor Fritz v Arthur Rinderknech
61–40 in points · Taylor Fritz won
Why it went the way it did
Taylor Fritz won 12.7 more points than Arthur Rinderknech relative to what the serve alone predicted. Arthur Rinderknech's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.6, return execution −2.1, backhand execution −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Taylor Fritz | Arthur Rinderknech | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | +1.9 | +2.0 | −0.1 | +0.3 | −1.0 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.3 | −0.8 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −2.1 | −2.4 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +0.3 | −1.7 | −1.1 | −0.3 | +0.5 | −4.6 | −4.4 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +1.2 | +1.3 | −0.5 | +0.1 | −1.6 | −2.0 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.8 | +0.4 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.6 | −1.1 | −1.8 |
| Net | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.8 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.1 |
| All shots | +0.6 | −0.4 | +2.4 | +2.5 | −0.9 | +0.7 | −9.9 | −10.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Taylor Fritz | Arthur Rinderknech | Net, Taylor | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.5 | −4.7 | +6.2 | |
| 2 | +1.1 | −5.5 | +6.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Taylor Fritz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 90% | – | 57% 85% |
| 2 | 35% 100% | 5% 0% | 60% 75% |
Within sets +0.91 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Arthur Rinderknech serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 75% | 16% 60% | 45% 50% |
| 2 | 56% 40% | 4% 100% | 41% 64% |
Set to set +1.62 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.17 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Taylor Fritz
2.3 points left on the table across 130 shots 1.80 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drop shot to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.11 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.09 pts
Arthur Rinderknech
3.8 points left on the table across 126 shots 3.05 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return +1: drop shot to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle + approach ×1; BH slice down the line + approach rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts