Mumbai · F · Hard · 9 Feb 2025
Jil Teichmann v Mananchaya Sawangkaew
69–54 in points · Jil Teichmann won
Why it went the way it did
Jil Teichmann won 3.3 more points than Mananchaya Sawangkaew relative to what the serve alone predicted. Mananchaya Sawangkaew's biggest leaks: forehand execution −1.7, slice shot selection −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jil Teichmann | Mananchaya Sawangkaew | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.3 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.9 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.3 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.2 | +2.3 | +3.7 | +0.4 | +1.1 | −1.7 | −0.1 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.8 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +1.6 | +2.2 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.1 | +0.2 | −0.9 | +0.2 | −1.6 | −0.4 | −1.8 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.1 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +1.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.8 | +0.3 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| All shots | −0.4 | +0.5 | +4.8 | +4.9 | +1.1 | +0.5 | +0.1 | +1.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Jil Teichmann | Mananchaya Sawangkaew | Net, Jil | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | +4.9 | +1.6 | +3.3 |
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jil Teichmann
4.7 points left on the table across 156 shots 2.99 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×2; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: slice to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
2.8 points left on the table across 167 shots 1.69 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×2; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts