Marseille · R16 · Hard · 13 Feb 2025
Pierre Hugues Herbert v Daniil Medvedev
38–63 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Daniil Medvedev won 13.0 more points than Pierre Hugues Herbert relative to what the serve alone predicted. Pierre Hugues Herbert's biggest leaks: backhand execution −2.9, slice shot selection −2.4, serve 2nd execution −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Pierre Hugues Herbert | Daniil Medvedev | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | +0.9 | −0.3 | +0.9 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +2.5 | +2.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −1.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +2.5 | +2.9 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +0.8 | −0.2 | +0.9 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +2.0 | +3.0 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.4 | −2.9 | −2.6 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +2.4 | +2.8 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −2.4 | +0.8 | −1.4 | +0.1 | −1.9 | −1.5 | −3.4 |
| Net | +0.6 | +0.5 | −0.1 | +1.1 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +1.3 | +1.8 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.2 | −0.3 |
| All shots | +1.4 | +0.1 | −4.2 | −2.7 | +1.1 | −1.1 | +10.3 | +10.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Pierre Hugues Herbert | Daniil Medvedev | Net, Pierre | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.5 | +4.9 | −7.3 | |
| 2 | −0.2 | +5.4 | −5.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Pierre Hugues Herbert serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 62% | – | 41% 33% |
| 2 | 53% 56% | – | 47% 57% |
Within sets +0.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Daniil Medvedev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% 100% | – | 70% 79% |
| 2 | 41% 83% | – | 59% 71% |
Within sets +1.12 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Pierre Hugues Herbert
3.0 points left on the table across 148 shots 2.01 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
Daniil Medvedev
2.8 points left on the table across 150 shots 1.87 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.11 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.11 pts