Doha · F · Hard · 15 Feb 2025
Jelena Ostapenko v Amanda Anisimova
57–69 in points · Amanda Anisimova won
Why it went the way it did
Amanda Anisimova won 6.9 more points than Jelena Ostapenko relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jelena Ostapenko's biggest leaks: serve 2nd execution −3.4, backhand execution −1.5, serve 1st execution −0.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jelena Ostapenko | Amanda Anisimova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.7 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −3.4 | −3.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Return | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +4.6 | +4.7 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +0.5 | +1.9 | +2.6 | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.6 | −0.2 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +0.6 | −1.5 | −0.6 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +1.0 | +1.7 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.8 | +0.1 | −0.9 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.6 | −0.4 |
| All shots | +0.6 | +1.1 | −4.0 | −2.3 | −0.2 | +0.4 | +4.4 | +4.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Jelena Ostapenko | Amanda Anisimova | Net, Jelena | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.7 | +1.7 | −3.4 | |
| 2 | −0.6 | +2.9 | −3.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jelena Ostapenko serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28% 56% | 13% 50% | 59% 58% |
| 2 | 27% 70% | 27% 20% | 46% 47% |
Set to set −0.90 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.25 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Amanda Anisimova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 77% | 27% 57% | 23% 67% |
| 2 | 45% 57% | 32% 60% | 23% 43% |
Within sets −0.27 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jelena Ostapenko
2.9 points left on the table across 131 shots 2.22 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, body, deuce court hit BH down the line ×3; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.13 pts
Amanda Anisimova
3.5 points left on the table across 137 shots 2.59 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×2; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts