Brazzaville CH · R32 · Clay · 18 Feb 2025
Kryce Didier Momo Kassa v Max Houkes
8–48 in points · Max Houkes won
Why it went the way it did
Max Houkes won 20.5 more points than Kryce Didier Momo Kassa relative to what the serve alone predicted. Kryce Didier Momo Kassa's biggest leaks: return execution −6.2, forehand execution −5.0, serve 2nd execution −3.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Kryce Didier Momo Kassa | Max Houkes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | −0.1 | −2.2 | −2.5 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −3.4 | −3.5 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.3 |
| Return | −0.3 | +0.1 | −6.2 | −6.4 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.9 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +0.5 | −5.0 | −4.8 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +1.4 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.4 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.9 | ±0.0 | −16.9 | −17.8 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +1.7 | +2.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Kryce Didier Momo Kassa | Max Houkes | Net, Kryce | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −9.8 | +0.7 | −10.5 | |
| 2 | −8.0 | +2.0 | −10.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Kryce Didier Momo Kassa serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 33% | 25% 0% | 38% 33% |
| 2 | 29% 0% | 43% 17% | 29% 25% |
Within sets +0.91 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Max Houkes serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 100% | 17% 100% | 42% 100% |
| 2 | 71% 80% | – | 29% 100% |
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Kryce Didier Momo Kassa
2.0 points left on the table across 49 shots 4.01 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.17 pts
Max Houkes
1.0 points left on the table across 42 shots 2.27 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×1; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.10 pts