Dubai · R16 · Hard · 19 Feb 2025
Peyton Stearns v Mirra Andreeva
42–64 in points · Mirra Andreeva won
Why it went the way it did
Mirra Andreeva won 12.3 more points than Peyton Stearns relative to what the serve alone predicted. Peyton Stearns's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.5, slice shot selection −2.1, serve 1st execution −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Peyton Stearns | Mirra Andreeva | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.4 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.4 |
| Return | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.8 | +1.8 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +1.7 | +1.4 |
| Forehand | +0.7 | +1.3 | −3.5 | −1.6 | −0.3 | +0.9 | +1.1 | +1.7 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.5 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +5.0 | +5.5 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.1 | −0.9 | −3.2 | −0.2 | −2.9 | +0.7 | −2.3 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.9 | −0.7 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.7 | +0.9 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.9 | −1.4 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.8 | +0.9 |
| All shots | +0.2 | −0.6 | −4.5 | −4.9 | −0.6 | −1.7 | +9.7 | +7.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Peyton Stearns | Mirra Andreeva | Net, Peyton | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.6 | +4.8 | −7.3 | |
| 2 | −2.3 | +2.6 | −5.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Peyton Stearns serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 36% | 17% 83% | 44% 38% |
| 2 | 38% 33% | 19% 33% | 44% 29% |
Set to set +0.15 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.19 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Mirra Andreeva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 57% | 22% 75% | 39% 86% |
| 2 | 37% 73% | 37% 55% | 27% 50% |
Within sets −1.54 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Peyton Stearns
4.6 points left on the table across 193 shots 2.37 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your middle hit FH drop shot through the middle ×1; FH drop shot crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
Mirra Andreeva
5.1 points left on the table across 192 shots 2.66 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice down the line ×2; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your middle hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts