Dubai · R32 · Hard · 25 Feb 2025
Roman Safiullin v Tallon Griekspoor
123–122 in points · Tallon Griekspoor won
Why it went the way it did
Roman Safiullin won 3.4 more points than Tallon Griekspoor relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tallon Griekspoor's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.4, return execution −3.4, forehand execution −3.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Roman Safiullin | Tallon Griekspoor | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.2 | −2.9 | −3.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +2.7 | +2.5 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.2 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −4.2 | −4.5 | −0.2 | −1.5 | −3.4 | −5.1 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +1.7 | +3.2 | +4.6 | ±0.0 | +3.1 | −3.3 | −0.1 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | +0.8 | +0.1 | +0.5 | −0.4 | +1.1 | −3.0 | −2.3 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −2.1 | −1.3 | −3.2 | +0.2 | −3.4 | −0.2 | −3.4 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.5 | −0.9 | −0.5 | +1.1 | −0.3 | −1.5 | −0.7 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.9 | −0.2 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.6 | −1.3 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| All shots | −0.5 | −0.6 | −7.1 | −8.2 | +0.5 | −1.8 | −10.3 | −11.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Roman Safiullin | Tallon Griekspoor | Net, Roman | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.3 | −4.9 | +4.6 | |
| 2 | −5.4 | −4.7 | −0.7 | |
| 3 | −2.5 | −2.0 | −0.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Roman Safiullin serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 87% | – | 46% 85% |
| 2 | 26% 77% | 12% 50% | 62% 58% |
| 3 | 37% 85% | 9% 67% | 54% 63% |
Set to set −0.14 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.38 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tallon Griekspoor serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 58% | 13% 75% | 50% 75% |
| 2 | 49% 63% | 12% 0% | 39% 84% |
| 3 | 42% 70% | 13% 83% | 46% 68% |
Set to set +0.21 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Roman Safiullin
8.8 points left on the table across 330 shots 2.65 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.22 pts
Tallon Griekspoor
8.3 points left on the table across 318 shots 2.61 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts