Dubai · R16 · Hard · 26 Feb 2025
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard v Daniil Medvedev
53–69 in points · Daniil Medvedev won
Why it went the way it did
Daniil Medvedev won 11.9 more points than Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard relative to what the serve alone predicted. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.6, forehand execution −2.6, serve 2nd execution −2.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | Daniil Medvedev | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | +1.0 | +2.3 | +3.5 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +1.2 | +1.4 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | +0.5 | −2.2 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +0.9 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +2.5 | +2.5 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +2.4 | −2.6 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +1.1 | +2.1 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.7 | −1.1 | −0.4 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +4.5 | +5.3 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −2.6 | −0.1 | −2.4 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | +0.6 | −1.0 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +0.8 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.7 | +2.2 | −3.0 | −0.2 | +0.7 | −0.5 | +11.5 | +11.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | Daniil Medvedev | Net, Giovanni | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.6 | +1.5 | −4.1 | |
| 2 | +2.4 | +10.2 | −7.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 68% | 5% 50% | 35% 54% |
| 2 | 62% 65% | 3% 0% | 35% 54% |
Set to set +0.10 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.11 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Daniil Medvedev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 60% | – | 62% 88% |
| 2 | 82% 94% | – | 18% 75% |
Within sets −3.98 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
6.0 points left on the table across 220 shots 2.73 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Daniil Medvedev
4.6 points left on the table across 209 shots 2.22 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.22 pts