Merida · R16 · Hard · 26 Feb 2025
Paula Badosa v Jaqueline Cristian
57–29 in points · Paula Badosa won
Why it went the way it did
Paula Badosa won 14.0 more points than Jaqueline Cristian relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jaqueline Cristian's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −1.8, return shot selection −0.9, serve 1st execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Paula Badosa | Jaqueline Cristian | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +3.2 | +3.5 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +2.0 | +1.8 | −0.5 | −0.9 | +2.4 | +0.9 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +1.6 | +2.8 | +4.1 | +0.7 | +1.7 | +1.0 | +3.4 |
| Backhand | −0.6 | +1.3 | +4.6 | +5.3 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.8 | +1.2 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.9 | +0.8 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −1.8 | +0.6 | −1.3 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.6 | +1.2 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −0.7 | −0.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.1 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| All shots | −0.6 | +2.2 | +14.9 | +16.5 | −0.2 | −0.2 | +2.9 | +2.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Paula Badosa | Jaqueline Cristian | Net, Paula | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +7.0 | −0.3 | +7.3 | |
| 2 | +9.5 | +2.8 | +6.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Paula Badosa serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 63% | 10% 100% | 50% 90% |
| 2 | 30% 57% | – | 70% 81% |
Within sets +0.77 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jaqueline Cristian serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 38% | 29% 57% | 38% 44% |
| 2 | 47% 44% | 32% 17% | 21% 75% |
Within sets +1.19 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Paula Badosa
6.1 points left on the table across 212 shots 2.87 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.55 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
Jaqueline Cristian
5.0 points left on the table across 212 shots 2.35 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts