Indian Wells Masters · R128 · Hard · 6 Mar 2025
Nick Kyrgios v Botic Van De Zandschulp
53–65 in points · Botic Van De Zandschulp won
Why it went the way it did
Botic Van De Zandschulp won 6.0 more points than Nick Kyrgios relative to what the serve alone predicted. Nick Kyrgios's biggest leaks: backhand execution −2.9, touch execution −2.4, slice shot selection −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Nick Kyrgios | Botic Van De Zandschulp | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.6 | −0.8 | −0.1 | −1.9 | −2.7 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.8 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −1.6 | −1.0 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.3 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +0.8 | +1.3 | +2.4 | +0.3 | +1.5 | +2.1 | +4.0 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | −0.1 | −2.9 | −2.6 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −1.4 | −1.4 |
| Slice | −0.5 | −1.9 | +2.5 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −2.4 | +2.9 | +0.4 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.3 | −0.4 | −0.2 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +1.2 | +2.1 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.4 | −2.4 | +0.1 | −0.7 | +0.3 | −0.3 |
| Other | −0.2 | −1.5 | −0.1 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −4.4 | −6.1 | +0.1 | −1.1 | +0.9 | −0.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Nick Kyrgios | Botic Van De Zandschulp | Net, Nick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.2 | −1.3 | −2.9 | |
| 2 | −1.9 | +1.2 | −3.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Nick Kyrgios serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 41% | 4% 100% | 53% 67% |
| 2 | 38% 33% | – | 63% 40% |
Within sets +2.03 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Botic Van De Zandschulp serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21% 70% | 33% 50% | 46% 68% |
| 2 | 18% 100% | 45% 40% | 36% 100% |
Within sets −1.72 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Nick Kyrgios
5.4 points left on the table across 232 shots 2.33 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your middle hit FH slice through the middle + approach ×1; FH slice crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Long rally, 9+: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
Botic Van De Zandschulp
4.5 points left on the table across 213 shots 2.11 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drop shot to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.18 pts