Indian Wells · R64 · Hard · 7 Mar 2025
Caroline Garcia v Iga Swiatek
31–57 in points · Iga Swiatek won
Why it went the way it did
Iga Swiatek won 13.0 more points than Caroline Garcia relative to what the serve alone predicted. Caroline Garcia's biggest leaks: backhand execution −3.1, return execution −2.1, forehand execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Caroline Garcia | Iga Swiatek | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.6 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 |
| Return | +0.3 | −0.8 | −2.1 | −2.7 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +2.0 | +2.5 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +0.5 | −2.1 | −1.9 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +1.0 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.8 | −3.1 | −2.3 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +1.2 | +1.5 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −1.0 | −0.8 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.1 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +0.2 | −1.1 | −8.5 | −9.4 | +0.5 | +1.1 | +2.1 | +3.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Caroline Garcia | Iga Swiatek | Net, Caroline | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.0 | +1.0 | −5.0 | |
| 2 | −5.4 | +2.6 | −8.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Caroline Garcia serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 20% | 19% 60% | 42% 45% |
| 2 | 33% 0% | 11% 50% | 56% 40% |
Within sets −1.87 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Iga Swiatek serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 23% | 15% 75% | 35% 100% |
| 2 | 44% 75% | – | 56% 70% |
Within sets +3.96 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Caroline Garcia
3.5 points left on the table across 130 shots 2.70 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
Iga Swiatek
2.8 points left on the table across 125 shots 2.27 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.15 pts