Indian Wells Masters · R64 · Hard · 8 Mar 2025
Quentin Halys v Carlos Alcaraz
43–54 in points · Carlos Alcaraz won
Why it went the way it did
Carlos Alcaraz won 5.6 more points than Quentin Halys relative to what the serve alone predicted. Quentin Halys's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −1.8, backhand execution −1.4, net execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Quentin Halys | Carlos Alcaraz | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | +0.1 | +1.2 | +1.7 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +2.6 | +2.6 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.2 | +1.8 | +2.3 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +4.2 | +4.0 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +1.0 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.7 | +1.4 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +0.4 | −1.4 | −0.7 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +3.2 | +4.1 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.8 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −0.1 | −2.3 | −1.3 | −3.8 |
| Net | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.5 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.3 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +1.2 | −0.8 | +3.0 | +3.4 | +0.7 | −1.7 | +10.1 | +9.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Quentin Halys | Carlos Alcaraz | Net, Quentin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.2 | +2.2 | ±0.0 | |
| 2 | +1.2 | +6.9 | −5.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Quentin Halys serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% 74% | – | 37% 64% |
| 2 | 63% 50% | – | 37% 71% |
Set to set −0.16 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.63 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Carlos Alcaraz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 69% | 3% 0% | 43% 77% |
| 2 | 33% 67% | 6% 100% | 61% 100% |
Set to set +1.18 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.67 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Quentin Halys
1.8 points left on the table across 115 shots 1.53 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.10 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.09 pts
Carlos Alcaraz
2.7 points left on the table across 132 shots 2.01 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice down the line ×3; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts