Indian Wells Masters · R32 · Hard · 9 Mar 2025
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard v Tallon Griekspoor
52–63 in points · Tallon Griekspoor won
Why it went the way it did
Tallon Griekspoor won 3.7 more points than Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard relative to what the serve alone predicted. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard's biggest leaks: return execution −5.7, serve 2nd execution −1.8, serve 1st execution −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | Tallon Griekspoor | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | +0.1 | −1.7 | −1.8 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | +0.3 | −1.8 | −1.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.5 |
| Return | −0.4 | −0.4 | −5.7 | −6.5 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −3.8 | −3.9 |
| Forehand | −1.1 | +1.7 | +2.1 | +2.6 | +0.1 | +2.1 | −1.0 | +1.2 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.9 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | −0.2 | +0.5 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −0.6 | +0.4 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −1.6 | +0.6 | −1.5 |
| Net | −0.6 | +0.1 | +1.8 | +1.3 | +0.5 | +0.6 | −0.1 | +1.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.7 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.4 |
| All shots | −2.7 | +0.9 | −4.1 | −5.9 | +0.3 | +0.9 | −3.4 | −2.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | Tallon Griekspoor | Net, Giovanni | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.2 | −2.2 | −1.0 | |
| 2 | −2.7 | ±0.0 | −2.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% 77% | 20% 86% | 17% 33% |
| 2 | 50% 70% | 10% 100% | 40% 63% |
Set to set −1.39 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.19 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tallon Griekspoor serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 81% | 17% 50% | 37% 77% |
| 2 | 55% 83% | 9% 50% | 36% 88% |
Set to set +1.34 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.85 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
6.7 points left on the table across 152 shots 4.39 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH lob through the middle ×2; FH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Long rally, 9+: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH inside-out + approach rates higher · 0.24 pts
Tallon Griekspoor
3.9 points left on the table across 146 shots 2.68 per 100 shots
- Return +1: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Long rally, 9+: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts