Indian Wells Masters · R16 · Hard · 12 Mar 2025
Grigor Dimitrov v Carlos Alcaraz
38–65 in points · Carlos Alcaraz won
Why it went the way it did
Carlos Alcaraz won 16.9 more points than Grigor Dimitrov relative to what the serve alone predicted. Grigor Dimitrov's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.2, serve 1st execution −2.3, net execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Grigor Dimitrov | Carlos Alcaraz | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −2.3 | −2.3 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +2.7 | +2.8 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | +0.1 | −1.0 | −0.9 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +1.3 | +1.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +3.2 | +3.4 |
| Forehand | +0.7 | +2.0 | +1.0 | +3.8 | +0.2 | +1.1 | +3.9 | +5.2 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.8 | −1.8 | −1.1 | +0.3 | +1.0 | +2.2 | +3.5 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −3.2 | −0.1 | −3.1 | +0.1 | −3.9 | +1.1 | −2.8 |
| Net | +0.4 | +0.3 | −2.1 | −1.4 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| All shots | +1.2 | −0.4 | −4.9 | −4.1 | +1.1 | −1.6 | +13.4 | +12.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Grigor Dimitrov | Carlos Alcaraz | Net, Grigor | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.5 | +6.2 | −9.6 | |
| 2 | −0.7 | +6.6 | −7.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Grigor Dimitrov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% 44% | 8% 100% | 43% 31% |
| 2 | 42% 45% | 8% 50% | 50% 46% |
Set to set +0.06 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.56 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Carlos Alcaraz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 43% | – | 56% 100% |
| 2 | 38% 78% | 4% 100% | 58% 71% |
Within sets +1.22 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Grigor Dimitrov
4.2 points left on the table across 207 shots 2.04 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
Carlos Alcaraz
4.4 points left on the table across 216 shots 2.02 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×4; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts