Miami Masters · QF · Hard · 26 Mar 2025
Grigor Dimitrov v Francisco Cerundolo
115–108 in points · Grigor Dimitrov won
Why it went the way it did
Grigor Dimitrov won 4.5 more points than Francisco Cerundolo relative to what the serve alone predicted. Francisco Cerundolo's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.9, return execution −2.8, slice shot selection −2.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Grigor Dimitrov | Francisco Cerundolo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.1 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −2.2 | −2.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.2 | +1.1 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −2.3 | +0.2 | −2.1 | +0.4 | +0.1 | −2.8 | −2.3 |
| Forehand | −0.8 | +4.0 | +1.4 | +4.6 | −0.7 | +3.2 | −3.9 | −1.4 |
| Backhand | −0.5 | +0.4 | −1.4 | −1.5 | −0.4 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −1.4 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −8.5 | +0.6 | −7.8 | ±0.0 | −2.3 | −2.0 | −4.2 |
| Net | +0.6 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.2 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.9 | +0.3 |
| All shots | −0.2 | −6.6 | −0.4 | −7.2 | −1.2 | −0.7 | −9.8 | −11.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Grigor Dimitrov | Francisco Cerundolo | Net, Grigor | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.5 | −5.6 | +0.1 | |
| 2 | +0.6 | −3.3 | +3.9 | |
| 3 | −2.3 | −2.8 | +0.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Grigor Dimitrov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65% 58% | 3% 100% | 33% 62% |
| 2 | 61% 93% | – | 39% 78% |
| 3 | 58% 65% | 7% 33% | 36% 75% |
Set to set +1.48 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.58 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Francisco Cerundolo serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% 59% | 24% 69% | 44% 58% |
| 2 | 46% 50% | 8% 100% | 46% 83% |
| 3 | 49% 76% | 14% 100% | 37% 38% |
Set to set −0.88 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.58 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Grigor Dimitrov
11.9 points left on the table across 444 shots 2.68 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×13; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.96 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle + approach ×3; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
Francisco Cerundolo
10.3 points left on the table across 442 shots 2.33 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×15; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts