Charleston · R32 · Clay · 31 Mar 2025
Veronika Kudermetova v Maria Mateas
64–35 in points · Veronika Kudermetova won
Why it went the way it did
Veronika Kudermetova won 15.9 more points than Maria Mateas relative to what the serve alone predicted. Maria Mateas's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.8, return execution −2.1, slice shot selection −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Veronika Kudermetova | Maria Mateas | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +1.8 | +1.5 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.1 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +1.5 | +2.0 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −2.1 | −2.0 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +1.6 | +3.4 | +5.4 | +0.6 | +1.0 | −2.8 | −1.3 |
| Backhand | +0.6 | +0.5 | +2.8 | +3.9 | +0.3 | +0.7 | −0.4 | +0.6 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −2.8 | −0.4 | −3.0 | −0.1 | −2.0 | +0.5 | −1.5 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +0.7 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.7 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.4 |
| All shots | +0.8 | −0.6 | +10.9 | +11.1 | −0.2 | +0.9 | −5.4 | −4.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Veronika Kudermetova | Maria Mateas | Net, Veronika | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +5.4 | −3.6 | +9.0 | |
| 2 | +5.7 | −1.2 | +6.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Veronika Kudermetova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20% 67% | 47% 86% | 33% 80% |
| 2 | 45% 80% | 32% 71% | 23% 40% |
Within sets −1.25 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Maria Mateas serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17% 0% | 50% 17% | 33% 75% |
| 2 | 8% 33% | 58% 41% | 34% 54% |
Within sets −0.74 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Veronika Kudermetova
3.5 points left on the table across 212 shots 1.66 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts
Maria Mateas
3.9 points left on the table across 190 shots 2.06 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit FH drop shot inside-in ×1; FH drop shot inside-out rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts