Charleston · R64 · Clay · 1 Apr 2025
Hailey Baptiste v Olivia Gadecki
65–48 in points · Hailey Baptiste won
Why it went the way it did
Hailey Baptiste won 9.0 more points than Olivia Gadecki relative to what the serve alone predicted. Olivia Gadecki's biggest leaks: return execution −5.4, forehand execution −3.0, slice shot selection −2.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Hailey Baptiste | Olivia Gadecki | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 |
| Return | −0.3 | −0.8 | −0.7 | −1.9 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −5.4 | −6.6 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +1.6 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +0.1 | +1.8 | −3.0 | −1.1 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.7 | −0.2 | +0.5 | −1.7 | −1.4 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −2.4 | −0.2 | −2.8 | −0.3 | −2.4 | +1.1 | −1.7 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +1.4 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.4 |
| Touch | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| All shots | −0.6 | −0.8 | −1.4 | −2.9 | −0.7 | −1.3 | −9.8 | −11.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Hailey Baptiste | Olivia Gadecki | Net, Hailey | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ±0.0 | −4.3 | +4.3 | |
| 2 | −2.9 | −7.5 | +4.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Hailey Baptiste serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% 71% | 9% 50% | 30% 71% |
| 2 | 62% 67% | 17% 60% | 21% 67% |
Within sets +0.51 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Olivia Gadecki serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25% 20% | 45% 67% | 30% 50% |
| 2 | 49% 50% | 15% 67% | 37% 47% |
Within sets −3.91 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Hailey Baptiste
5.2 points left on the table across 170 shots 3.08 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
Olivia Gadecki
5.4 points left on the table across 178 shots 3.02 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice down the line ×2; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drop shot to your middle hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts