ITF Zaragoza · SF · Clay · 12 Apr 2025
Kaitlin Quevedo v Olivia Gadecki
67–48 in points · Kaitlin Quevedo won
Why it went the way it did
Kaitlin Quevedo won 9.8 more points than Olivia Gadecki relative to what the serve alone predicted. Olivia Gadecki's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.8, slice shot selection −2.5, net execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Kaitlin Quevedo | Olivia Gadecki | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.0 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.6 | +2.4 | +3.0 | +0.3 | −0.6 | +1.2 | +1.0 |
| Forehand | −0.7 | +2.3 | +0.3 | +1.9 | +0.7 | +2.1 | −2.8 | +0.1 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.3 | +2.2 | +0.8 | +0.7 | +2.3 | +3.9 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −0.2 | −2.5 | −0.5 | −3.3 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.6 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −1.3 | −1.2 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.5 | +1.0 | +1.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 |
| All shots | −0.5 | +3.2 | +6.7 | +9.3 | +1.6 | ±0.0 | −2.0 | −0.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Kaitlin Quevedo | Olivia Gadecki | Net, Kaitlin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.8 | −0.3 | +5.1 | |
| 2 | +4.5 | −0.1 | +4.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Kaitlin Quevedo serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 55% | 21% 33% | 41% 67% |
| 2 | 46% 67% | 23% 50% | 31% 63% |
Set to set −0.35 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.53 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Olivia Gadecki serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 53% | 19% 17% | 32% 30% |
| 2 | 34% 50% | 28% 63% | 38% 27% |
Set to set −2.24 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.11 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Kaitlin Quevedo
7.3 points left on the table across 293 shots 2.50 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×18; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.77 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
Olivia Gadecki
5.3 points left on the table across 301 shots 1.77 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice down the line ×3; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return +1: drop shot to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts