Stuttgart · R32 · Clay · 16 Apr 2025
Mirra Andreeva v Erika Andreeva
30–13 in points · Mirra Andreeva won
Why it went the way it did
Mirra Andreeva won 7.7 more points than Erika Andreeva relative to what the serve alone predicted. Erika Andreeva's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.6, backhand execution −1.1, slice shot selection −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Mirra Andreeva | Erika Andreeva | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 |
| Return | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.6 | −0.7 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.7 | −0.4 | +0.2 | +0.3 | −2.6 | −2.1 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.2 | +2.4 | +2.7 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −1.1 | −1.0 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.6 | +0.3 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.7 | −1.6 |
| Net | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.2 | +0.1 | +1.6 | +1.9 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −5.6 | −5.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Mirra Andreeva | Erika Andreeva | Net, Mirra | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.1 | −4.8 | +5.9 | |
| 2 | +0.8 | −1.0 | +1.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Mirra Andreeva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 50% | 10% 50% | 50% 90% |
| 2 | 50% 100% | – | 50% 100% |
Erika Andreeva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 50% | – | 56% 30% |
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Mirra Andreeva
1.5 points left on the table across 63 shots 2.43 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.11 pts
Erika Andreeva
1.8 points left on the table across 71 shots 2.57 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.11 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.09 pts