Madrid Masters · R128 · Clay · 23 Apr 2025
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard v Mariano Navone
53–69 in points · Mariano Navone won
Why it went the way it did
Mariano Navone won 9.9 more points than Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard relative to what the serve alone predicted. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard's biggest leaks: forehand execution −8.9, slice shot selection −2.9, backhand execution −0.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | Mariano Navone | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.5 | +1.0 | +4.0 | +5.5 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +2.3 | +2.3 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | +0.2 | +1.3 | +1.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +0.1 | −0.4 | +3.0 | +2.6 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +1.9 | −8.9 | −6.7 | +0.4 | +1.0 | +0.8 | +2.2 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.6 | +0.2 | −0.3 | +1.9 | +1.8 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −2.9 | ±0.0 | −2.9 | −0.2 | −2.1 | +0.6 | −1.6 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.2 | +1.1 | +1.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 |
| All shots | +0.8 | +0.2 | −2.7 | −1.6 | +0.7 | −1.8 | +9.3 | +8.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | Mariano Navone | Net, Giovanni | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.9 | +2.0 | −4.9 | |
| 2 | +1.2 | +6.3 | −5.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 89% 58% | – | 11% 100% |
| 2 | 69% 55% | – | 31% 69% |
Within sets +1.36 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Mariano Navone serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 86% | 4% 100% | 67% 81% |
| 2 | 55% 88% | 3% 0% | 41% 67% |
Within sets +0.17 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
5.0 points left on the table across 183 shots 2.75 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Mariano Navone
4.0 points left on the table across 167 shots 2.39 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH slice through the middle ×3; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts