Roland Garros · R32 · Clay · 30 May 2025
Tommy Paul v Karen Khachanov
160–164 in points · Tommy Paul won
Why it went the way it did
Karen Khachanov won 1.3 more points than Tommy Paul relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tommy Paul's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.9, forehand execution −1.6, touch shot selection −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Tommy Paul | Karen Khachanov | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | +0.1 | −1.1 | −1.1 | +0.4 | −0.3 | −2.6 | −2.5 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.4 | +1.3 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.8 | +0.4 | −0.1 | +1.9 | −0.7 | +1.1 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +7.1 | −1.6 | +5.7 | +0.3 | +4.1 | +2.1 | +6.5 |
| Backhand | +0.5 | +0.6 | +3.2 | +4.3 | +1.3 | −1.1 | +2.6 | +2.8 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −5.9 | ±0.0 | −5.6 | −0.1 | −4.4 | +0.2 | −4.4 |
| Net | +0.6 | −0.5 | −0.8 | −0.7 | −0.3 | +0.3 | +0.9 | +0.9 |
| Touch | +0.3 | −1.3 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −1.1 | −0.7 |
| All shots | +1.7 | −0.2 | +2.1 | +3.7 | +1.6 | +0.6 | +2.8 | +5.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Tommy Paul | Karen Khachanov | Net, Tommy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.3 | −1.0 | +3.3 | |
| 2 | −0.9 | +2.3 | −3.2 | |
| 3 | +2.1 | +2.4 | −0.3 | |
| 4 | −2.3 | −0.2 | −2.2 | |
| 5 | +2.5 | +1.4 | +1.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Tommy Paul serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 77% | 15% 75% | 37% 70% |
| 2 | 56% 36% | 8% 100% | 36% 67% |
| 3 | 54% 63% | 8% 50% | 38% 53% |
| 4 | 54% 43% | 8% 0% | 38% 80% |
| 5 | 26% 63% | 29% 56% | 45% 57% |
Set to set +0.09 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Karen Khachanov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 62% 77% | – | 38% 38% |
| 2 | 64% 65% | 8% 100% | 28% 50% |
| 3 | 65% 61% | – | 35% 53% |
| 4 | 59% 59% | 11% 100% | 30% 55% |
| 5 | 50% 64% | 7% 0% | 43% 50% |
Set to set −0.50 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.32 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Tommy Paul
16.8 points left on the table across 636 shots 2.64 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×7; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.37 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×7; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.14 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.59 pts
Karen Khachanov
17.6 points left on the table across 626 shots 2.82 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×9; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.47 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×7; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.28 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×9; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.72 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.53 pts