Roland Garros · R32 · Clay · 31 May 2025
Jannik Sinner v Jiri Lehecka
91–45 in points · Jannik Sinner won
Why it went the way it did
Jannik Sinner won 26.1 more points than Jiri Lehecka relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jiri Lehecka's biggest leaks: return execution −4.4, forehand execution −3.3, backhand execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jannik Sinner | Jiri Lehecka | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.2 | +0.1 | +0.6 | −1.7 | −0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.4 | +1.0 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.8 | +1.9 | +2.9 | +0.2 | −1.2 | −4.4 | −5.5 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +2.2 | +6.1 | +8.5 | −0.4 | +1.8 | −3.3 | −1.8 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +1.6 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −2.1 | −2.3 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.6 | −1.2 | −1.8 | +0.2 | −1.7 | −0.2 | −1.6 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.5 | −1.6 |
| Touch | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.5 | −0.9 |
| All shots | +0.7 | +2.9 | +8.8 | +12.5 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −13.2 | −13.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Jannik Sinner | Jiri Lehecka | Net, Jannik | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.6 | −4.8 | +8.4 | |
| 2 | +5.4 | −4.5 | +9.9 | |
| 3 | +3.4 | −4.4 | +7.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jannik Sinner serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% 73% | 6% 0% | 33% 100% |
| 2 | 50% 78% | 6% 100% | 44% 100% |
| 3 | 32% 83% | 5% 100% | 63% 83% |
Set to set +2.94 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jiri Lehecka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 11% | 6% 0% | 41% 57% |
| 2 | 59% 40% | 6% 50% | 35% 58% |
| 3 | 57% 53% | 7% 0% | 37% 55% |
Set to set +0.66 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.58 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jannik Sinner
6.1 points left on the table across 225 shots 2.70 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.98 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Jiri Lehecka
6.3 points left on the table across 222 shots 2.85 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts