Roland Garros · R16 · Clay · 2 Jun 2025
Alexander Bublik v Jack Draper
125–110 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Alexander Bublik won 4.4 more points than Jack Draper relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jack Draper's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −1.6, slice execution −1.3, touch execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alexander Bublik | Jack Draper | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | +0.3 | −1.8 | −1.4 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +2.9 | +2.8 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.8 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −1.4 | +1.6 | +0.2 | −0.3 | −0.9 | +1.8 | +0.7 |
| Forehand | +0.6 | +1.8 | +0.6 | +2.9 | ±0.0 | +3.0 | +1.6 | +4.7 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | −0.3 | +1.4 | +1.2 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +1.7 | +1.4 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.6 | +0.4 | −1.2 | −0.3 | −1.6 | −1.3 | −3.2 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.7 | +2.4 | +3.2 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.1 |
| Touch | −0.1 | +1.4 | +2.5 | +3.9 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −1.1 | −1.8 |
| All shots | +0.5 | +0.9 | +6.6 | +8.0 | −0.7 | −0.2 | +4.5 | +3.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Alexander Bublik | Jack Draper | Net, Alexander | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.2 | +3.9 | −4.1 | |
| 2 | +3.0 | +0.9 | +2.0 | |
| 3 | +4.1 | −1.0 | +5.1 | |
| 4 | +1.1 | −0.2 | +1.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alexander Bublik serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 58% | 8% 67% | 42% 69% |
| 2 | 37% 80% | 7% 0% | 56% 67% |
| 3 | 50% 64% | 14% 100% | 36% 75% |
| 4 | 54% 64% | 2% 100% | 44% 61% |
Set to set −0.86 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.52 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jack Draper serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 82% | 6% 50% | 61% 75% |
| 2 | 16% 67% | – | 84% 56% |
| 3 | 37% 50% | 15% 50% | 48% 54% |
| 4 | 41% 64% | 15% 100% | 44% 42% |
Set to set +1.33 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.25 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alexander Bublik
9.5 points left on the table across 382 shots 2.48 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return +1: drop shot to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.27 pts
Jack Draper
11.4 points left on the table across 362 shots 3.16 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×8; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.94 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×6; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.45 pts