Roland Garros · F · Clay · 8 Jun 2025
Jannik Sinner v Carlos Alcaraz
193–192 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Jannik Sinner won 1.6 more points than Carlos Alcaraz relative to what the serve alone predicted. Carlos Alcaraz's biggest leaks: return execution −6.2, slice shot selection −5.8, serve 1st execution −4.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jannik Sinner | Carlos Alcaraz | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.4 | −4.8 | −5.4 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −4.2 | −4.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +3.5 | +3.4 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.7 |
| Return | −0.1 | +1.1 | +0.7 | +1.6 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −6.2 | −6.1 |
| Forehand | −1.3 | +6.0 | −8.2 | −3.5 | +0.3 | +7.3 | +1.8 | +9.4 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | −1.2 | +4.7 | +3.2 | +0.1 | −2.2 | +7.1 | +5.0 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −3.7 | +0.7 | −3.3 | −0.1 | −5.8 | −0.7 | −6.7 |
| Net | +0.2 | +1.4 | −0.2 | +1.5 | −0.3 | +0.7 | +0.9 | +1.4 |
| Touch | +0.3 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.4 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −2.1 | −1.6 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.6 |
| All shots | −1.5 | +2.5 | −3.8 | −2.8 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −3.9 | −4.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Jannik Sinner | Carlos Alcaraz | Net, Jannik | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.7 | −6.8 | +3.0 | |
| 2 | −1.5 | −2.3 | +0.8 | |
| 3 | −0.6 | +1.9 | −2.5 | |
| 4 | −1.2 | −2.1 | +1.0 | |
| 5 | +4.2 | +4.8 | −0.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jannik Sinner serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% 57% | 12% 40% | 32% 77% |
| 2 | 41% 71% | 15% 50% | 44% 67% |
| 3 | 41% 46% | 16% 20% | 44% 57% |
| 4 | 63% 77% | 3% 0% | 34% 50% |
| 5 | 43% 56% | 14% 67% | 43% 67% |
Set to set +0.27 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.05 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Carlos Alcaraz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64% 52% | 9% 67% | 27% 44% |
| 2 | 54% 62% | 10% 50% | 36% 71% |
| 3 | 54% 67% | 18% 80% | 29% 13% |
| 4 | 67% 69% | 21% 56% | 12% 40% |
| 5 | 65% 56% | 22% 73% | 12% 83% |
Set to set +1.06 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.60 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jannik Sinner
19.4 points left on the table across 782 shots 2.48 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×26; FH crosscourt rates higher · 1.32 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×18; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.70 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.68 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×17; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.67 pts
Carlos Alcaraz
19.9 points left on the table across 802 shots 2.48 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×10; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.96 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×18; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.91 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×16; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.91 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.74 pts